Visiongain has published a new report entitled Biofuels & Biochemicals Market Report 2025-2035 (Including Impact of U.S. Trade Tariffs): Forecasts by Business Model (Integrated Bio-Refineries, Decentralised/Modular Production Units), by Feedstock Source (First-Generation, Second-Generation, Third-Generation), by Application (Transportation Fuels, Aviation Fuels, Power Generation, Industrial Chemicals & Intermediates), by Process (Fermentation, Transesterification, Gasification, Pyrolysis, Other), by Product Type (Bioethanol, Biodiesel, Biogas/Renewable Natural Gas (RNG), Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF), Bio-based Chemicals, Hydrogen from Biomass) AND Regional and Leading National Market Analysis PLUS Analysis of Leading Companies.

The global biofuels & biochemicals market is estimated at US$220.1 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow at a CAGR of 9.9% during the forecast period 2025-2035.

Impact of US Trade Tariffs on the Global Biofuels & Biochemicals Market   

The introduction and adjustment of U.S. tariffs on biofuels and biochemicals have created both challenges and opportunities for the global market. Over the past few years, tariff policies targeting imports of ethanol, biodiesel, and renewable chemical intermediates have reshaped international trade flows, influencing competitiveness and investment strategies across key producing regions. The United States, one of the largest producers and consumers of biofuels, has used tariff measures to protect domestic industries from low-cost imports, particularly from Latin America and Southeast Asia. However, such policies also disrupt supply chains and impact countries reliant on U.S. exports. The global biofuels market’s response to these tariffs varies based on regional production capacity, feedstock availability, and government incentives, resulting in different recovery trajectories V-shaped, U-shaped, or L-shaped depending on market resilience and policy adjustments.

Brownfield Refinery Conversions Are Delivering Scale and Learning Curves

A second engine of growth is the rapid conversion of legacy refineries to renewable fuels, which compresses time-to-market and taps existing logistics. Phillips 66’s Rodeo Renewed complex fully converted in 2024 and has since added SAF output, with public disclosures pointing to roughly 50,000 b/d of renewable fuels capability and SAF production ramping from late-2024. Marathon–Neste’s Martinez Renewables JV likewise reached full capacity by late-2024, and U.S. state and federal grants have begun to flow to SAF logistics and storage upgrades that complement these sites. These projects anchor feedstock pre-treatment, hydrotreating, and hydrogen integration know-how that can be reused in future assets, lowering execution risk across the portfolio.

On the supply chain’s other flank, Neste’s Singapore expansion doubled the site to 2.6 Mtpa of renewable products, with direct SAF supply now flowing to airlines at Changi, and Rotterdam’s program targeting 2.7 Mtpa of renewable products with 2.2 Mtpa of global SAF capability by 2027. These scale moves matter because SAF and renewable diesel still carry price premiums; every incremental barrel that comes from a high-uptime, integrated complex helps narrow spreads and supports predictable supply for airline and truck-diesel blends.

How will this Report Benefit you?

Visiongain’s 402-page report provides 118 tables and 115 charts/graphs. Our new study is suitable for anyone requiring commercial, in-depth analyses for the biofuels & biochemicals market, along with detailed segment analysis in the market. Our new study will help you evaluate the overall global and regional market for biofuels & biochemicals. Get financial analysis of the overall market and different segments including business model, feedstock source, application, process, and product type, and capture higher market share. We believe that there are strong opportunities in this fast-growing biofuels & biochemicals market. See how to use the existing and upcoming opportunities in this market to gain revenue benefits in the near future. Moreover, the report will help you to improve your strategic decision-making, allowing you to frame growth strategies, reinforce the analysis of other market players, and maximise the productivity of the company.

What are the Current Market Drivers?

Aviation and Maritime Offtake Are Converting MOUs into Real Purchases

Aviation has moved from pilots to production. LanzaJet’s Freedom Pines plant in Georgia opened in January 2024 as the world’s first commercial ethanol-to-jet (ATJ) facility, targeting about 10 million gallons per year in initial phases and creating a tangible scale reference for alcohol-to-jet economics. As ReFuelEU and national schemes tighten, airlines and alliances are signing physical procurements rather than symbolic MOUs, which, in turn, enables debt and offtake-backed project finance for next-wave assets. The lesson from 2024–2025 is that policy visibility plus first-plants are enough to unlock meaningful second-plant momentum.

Shipping is the parallel demand engine. Dual-fuel methanol tonnage is entering service quickly, with Maersk expanding orders and signing long-term bio-/e-methanol supply deals to fuel its growing fleet. Producers such as OCI Global and Methanex are positioning to meet surging marine demand, while the Methanol Institute tracks rapid vessel adoption and early inland deployments. As the IMO and leading ports escalate carbon-pricing and fuel-standard discussions, bio-methanol acts as a near-term bridge fuel that can be blended and distributed with fewer infrastructure overhauls than ammonia or hydrogen, anchoring multi-year offtake for biogenic and recycled-carbon methanol projects.

Emerging Market Blend Programs Are Expanding Volume Baselines

The largest incremental volumes in road fuels are coming from blend mandates in emerging markets. Indonesia progressed from B35 to B40 in 2025 and is preparing for B50 by 2026, materially increasing palm-based biodiesel consumption and tightening export availability, which reshapes global trade flows and price dynamics. These policies create a durable domestic sink for biofuels, stabilizing producer cash flows and inviting upstream investments in feedstock logistics, ISCC certification, and engine testing to manage cold-flow and durability concerns at higher blends.

Brazil is likewise turning policy dials with the Future Fuel Law and the mature RenovaBio system, setting clear biodiesel-blend trajectories toward 2030 and enforcing compliance through CBIO markets and sanctions. The combination of higher mandated blends, aggressive ethanol integration in gasoline, and credible penalties for non-compliance is pushing distributors and producers to invest in efficiency and CI reduction, which should translate into steadier credit markets and more bankable expansion for second-generation routes and integrated biorefining.

Where are the Market Opportunities?

SAF Scale-Up Through Mandates, Hub Logistics and ATJ/HEFA Diversity

The next five years offer a visible bridge to real SAF volumes riding EU mandates, Asia’s early adoption and North American credits. One near-term play is to co-locate SAF production with logistics grants and airline hubs, as seen with U.S. FAST-grant allocations and Singapore’s direct supply at Changi following Neste’s expansion. Producers that diversify across HEFA and alcohol-to-jet can optimize feedstock baskets and CI, while airlines lock in multi-year supply to meet 2025–2030 mandates and corporate net-zero commitments.

A second leg is replication of first-of-kind plants. LanzaJet’s Freedom Pines provides a learn-and-copy template for ATJ, and large hydrotreating conversions such as Rodeo Renewed are now producing SAF alongside renewable diesel, validating integration models that minimize capex per gallon. As these assets stack up run-time and improve yields, offtake can evolve from fixed volumes to indexed CI-linked pricing, improving bankability and aligning incentives to decarbonize process energy and hydrogen.

Marine Bio-Methanol as the Workhorse of Decarbonized Shipping

Green methanol is emerging as the practical near-term marine fuel given engine readiness and bunkering pragmatism. Maersk’s growing fleet of dual-fuel vessels and supply agreements with producers like LONGi signal credible multi-year offtake, while global suppliers such as Methanex are repositioning portfolios and logistics to serve the corridor build-out. Project developers that can secure biogenic CO₂ or sustainable carbon feed plus renewable hydrogen—or source verified bio-methanol—stand to win early volumes as ports add methanol bunkering and the IMO refines its carbon-intensity regime.

Because the same molecule serves chemicals and fuels, bio-methanol assets enjoy optionality: when marine spreads widen, sales pivot to bunkers; when chemicals tighten, volumes return to downstream derivatives. This flexibility, combined with rising vessel orders and early inland deployments, improves debt capacity and exit options for investors compared with single-use biofuel assets.

Competitive Landscape

The major players operating in the biofuels & biochemicals market are , Abengoa, S.A (Acquire by Cox Energy), Alto Ingredients, Inc, Archer Daniels Midland Company, BASF SE, Bio-Oils Energy, BP Plc, Butamax Advanced Biofuels LLC, Eniven Group, Fulcrum BioEnergy, Green Plains Inc., Renewable Biofuels LLC, Royal Dutch Shell Plc, Valero Energy Corporation, and Wilmar International Ltd. These major players operating in this market have adopted various strategies comprising M&A, collaborations, investment in R&D, regional business expansion, partnerships, and new product launch.

Recent Developments

• 17-Sep-25, BASF launched the Keropur AP 225-20 additive, meeting U.S. TOP TIER+, EPA LAC, and CARB standards. The additive enhances fuel economy, engine protection, and cleaner combustion. The product will be available ahead of the January 2027 compliance deadline, supporting a smooth transition for customers.
• 27-Aug-25, Green Plains signed an asset purchase agreement to sell its Rives, Tennessee ethanol plant for US$190 million, including ~$20 million working capital. Proceeds will retire junior mezzanine debt due in 2026 and enhance liquidity. Transaction expected to close Q3 2025, subject to regulatory approvals and standard closing conditions.
• 22-Apr-25, Eco-Energy LLC selected as Green Plains’ exclusive ethanol marketer, handling marketing and logistics across the platform. The partnership aims to optimize value, expand market access, and improve supply chain efficiency.
• 10-Sep-24, Green Plains and Tharaldson Ethanol announced the successful start-up of the MSC system, enhancing the production of high-protein feed ingredients and operational efficiency.

Notes for Editors

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