Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) & e-Fuels Supply Chain Market

14 January 2026.

Visiongain has published a new report entitled Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) & e-Fuels Supply Chain Market Report 2026-2036 (Including Impact of U.S. Trade Tariffs): Forecasts by Blending Level (Low/ Medium Blend (≤10-50%), 100% Drop-in SAF), by Fuel Type (Synthetic SAF/e-Fuels (Power-to-Liquid), Co-processed SAF, Bio-based SAF), by Feedstock Type (Used Cooking Oil (UCO) & Waste Fats, Agricultural Residues, Forestry Residues, Other), by Supply Chain Stage (Feedstock Collection & Aggregation, Fuel Production & Refining, Distribution to Airports, Upgrading & Blending, Storage & Logistics), by Production Technology (Hydroprocessed Esters & Fatty Acids (HEFA), Alcohol-to-Jet (AtJ), Power-to-Liquid (PtL/e-Fuels), Fischer–Tropsch (FT-SPK), Gasification + FT (MSW, biomass), Catalytic Hydrothermolysis (CHJ)) AND Regional and Leading National Market Analysis PLUS Analysis of Leading Companies.

The global sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) & e-fuels supply chain market is estimated at US$3.30 billion in 2026 and is projected to grow at a CAGR of 28.8% during the forecast period 2026-2036.

Impact of US Trade Tariffs on the Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) & e-Fuels Supply Chain Market

U.S. tariffs on selected clean energy equipment, industrial inputs, and imported biofuel-related components have introduced new cost pressures across the global sustainable aviation fuel and e-fuels supply chain. While SAF and e-fuels markets are primarily driven by regulatory mandates and long-term decarbonisation goals, tariffs on electrolyzers, renewable power equipment, catalysts, and specialised refining components can influence project economics, investment timing, and supply chain localisation strategies. In the near term, tariffs may raise capital expenditure for new SAF plants and power-to-liquid facilities, particularly those relying on imported technologies. However, they also create incentives for domestic manufacturing, regional supply chain development, and strategic partnerships within the U.S. and allied markets.

Long-Term Offtake Agreements Are Maturing From PR-Driven Pilots Into Structured Finance Instruments That Unlock Project FID

The market is moving beyond small demonstration volumes toward contracts designed to support Final Investment Decisions (FID), including multi-year terms, defined delivery points, sustainability documentation, and in some cases pricing structures that reduce volatility for developers. This matters because SAF projects are capital intensive and the supply chain is multi-node (feedstock aggregation, pretreatment, conversion, blending, storage, certification, airport delivery). Long-term demand commitments help align lenders, equity, and equipment providers around a predictable ramp curve. The most visible proof points are in large producers and first-of-a-kind plants: LanzaJet’s Freedom Pines project is positioned as a blueprint for scaling Alcohol-to-Jet (ATJ) through a fully integrated facility supplied by low-carbon ethanol, with long-dated offtake coverage intended to demonstrate repeatability. On the HEFA side, Neste’s continued multi-airport airline supply expansions (including North American and Asia-Pacific-linked logistics) reflect how “deliverable SAF” agreements—where the fuel reliably shows up at specific hubs—are becoming the commercial standard rather than a one-off sustainability purchase.

How will this Report Benefit you?

Visiongain’s 437-page report provides 124 tables and 208 charts/graphs. Our new study is suitable for anyone requiring commercial, in-depth analyses for the sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) & e-fuels supply chain market, along with detailed segment analysis in the market. Our new study will help you evaluate the overall global and regional market for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) & e-fuels supply chain. Get financial analysis of the overall market and different segments including blending level, fuel type, feedstock type, supply chain stage, and production technology, and capture higher market share. We believe that there are strong opportunities in this fast-growing sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) & e-fuels supply chain market. See how to use the existing and upcoming opportunities in this market to gain revenue benefits in the near future. Moreover, the report will help you to improve your strategic decision-making, allowing you to frame growth strategies, reinforce the analysis of other market players, and maximise the productivity of the company.

What are the Current Market Drivers?

Feedstock Industrialization and Traceability Are Improving, Turning Waste Lipids and Alcohol Intermediates into a Tradable, Certifiable Commodity Stream

SAF scale is constrained less by “technology exists” and more by “can you reliably secure molecules that meet sustainability rules at industrial volumes.” The supply chain is therefore being reshaped around feedstock professionalization: tighter chain-of-custody systems, pretreatment investments, and cross-border sourcing strategies that mirror traditional commodity markets (but with additional sustainability attributes and auditability). Used cooking oil (UCO), tallow, and other waste lipids remain dominant near-term inputs for HEFA, while low-carbon ethanol is becoming the critical intermediate for ATJ routes. What is changing now is the degree of scrutiny and documentation: as mandates tighten, buyers demand confidence that feedstock qualifies under specific regulatory definitions, not merely that it is “renewable.” The UK’s 2025 experience—where recycled cooking oil has been a major supply contributor, illustrates both the strength and fragility of a waste-based feedstock strategy: it can scale quickly, but it also concentrates risk in a limited pool of globally traded wastes and intensifies concerns about verification, diversion, and price escalation. Producers that can demonstrate robust sustainability governance and consistent logistics (again, Neste is a leading example) gain commercial advantage because they de-risk compliance for airlines and fuel suppliers.

First Commercial E-Fuels and E-SAF Facilities Are Moving from Lab/Pilot to Early Industrial Reality, Tightening the Link Between Renewable Power, CO₂ Sourcing, and Aviation Fuel

Power-to-Liquid (PtL) and e-kerosene have shifted from “future pathway” to “early commercial proof,” and that transition is a supply-chain story as much as a chemistry story. PtL requires integrated access to low-cost renewable electricity, electrolyzer-scale hydrogen, a CO₂ source (biogenic, industrial capture, or direct air capture depending on the framework), synthesis (often via Fischer–Tropsch or methanol pathways), upgrading, and then certification and distribution into aviation pools. In Europe, early flagship facilities are being inaugurated and scaled, demonstrating that e-fuels logistics—especially hydrogen handling, CO₂contracting, and grid interconnection—are now front-page execution issues. A recent, widely discussed milestone is the commissioning and inauguration of one of the largest e-fuel/e-SAF plants to date in Frankfurt by INERATEC, which underscores that the bottleneck is increasingly project integration (power, permitting, equipment lead times) rather than core reaction science. As these plants come online, they also shape airline procurement strategies: e-fuels are likely to be allocated first to routes/regions where compliance crediting is strongest and where “drop-in” certification pathways provide immediate usability.

Where are the Market Opportunities?

Alcohol-To-Jet (ATJ) Scale-Up Offers a Credible Volume Pathway by Tapping The Global Ethanol Ecosystem and Diversifying Away from Waste-Lipid Scarcity

ATJ is emerging as a major opportunity because it can leverage an existing industrial base—ethanol production, transport, storage, and trading—while enabling SAF that is less dependent on constrained waste lipids. The strategic value is supplying diversification: if ATJ ramps successfully, it expands the addressable feedstock pool to include low-carbon ethanol from residues, cellulosic routes, and other scalable sources, reducing exposure to UCO/tallow price spikes. Recent commercial progress supports this: LanzaJet has advanced its Freedom Pines facility as a first-of-a-kind integrated demonstration intended to validate operability and repeatability of its ATJ pathway, including the production of ethanol-based SAF and a template for future plants. If the industry can standardize specifications, optimize yields, and replicate modular plant designs, ATJ can shift from “promising” to “bankable,” attracting larger pools of infrastructure capital and accelerating multi-region deployment.

Airport-Centric SAF Hubs and Multi-Airport Supply Networks Can Reduce Delivered Cost by Optimizing Blending Logistics, Storage Utilization, and Certification Workflows

A high-leverage opportunity is to treat SAF not as a bespoke delivery to one airline at one airport, but as an “airport hub product” integrated into the same infrastructure logic as conventional jet fuel. This means building scalable blending and storage capability at strategically chosen hubs, securing multi-buyer demand, and running standardized quality and certification processes that lower transaction costs. Producers and suppliers that can serve multiple airports with consistent product (and manage the blending-to-spec process reliably) can improve utilization and reduce per-unit logistics costs. This is already visible in how large producers structure airline supply: multi-airport delivery strategies make SAF operationally routine, which is exactly what compliance markets require. The more SAF becomes “just another line item” in airport fuel procurement—rather than a special shipment—the faster volumes can scale and the lower the friction for airlines that operate complex networks.

Competitive Landscape

The major players operating in the sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) & e-fuels supply chain market are BP Plc , China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (SINOPEC), Equinor ASA, Fulcrum BioEnergy, Gevo, Inc., HIF Global, LanzaJet, Inc, Northwest Advanced Bio-Fuels, LLC, Petróleo Brasileiro S.A., Repsol Energy, Shell Plc, SK Energy, Total Energies SE, Valero Energy Corporation, and World Energy, LLC. These major players operating in this market have adopted various strategies comprising M&A, collaborations, investment in R&D, regional business expansion, partnerships, and new product launch.

Recent Developments

About Visiongain

Established in 1998, Visiongain is an independent publisher of analyst-led market intelligence, delivering data-driven research, forecasts, and strategic insight across global industries and emerging markets. Visiongain supports evidence-based decision-making for investment, procurement, and long-term strategic planning.