Visiongain has published a new report entitled Sustainable Aviation Fuels & Propulsion Systems Market Report 2026-2036(Including Impact of U.S. Trade Tariffs): Forecasts by Propulsion System (Conventional Turbofan/Turboprop, Series Hybrid Systems), by End-user (Air Cargo Operators & Integrators, Commercial Passenger Carriers, Other), by Feedstock (Lipid-based, Lignocellulosic, Sugars & Alcohols, CO₂ + Green Hydrogen), by Aircraft Type (Commercial Aircraft, Business & General Aviation, Cargo & Freighter, Military & Government Aircraft, Other), by Fuel Type (Hydro-processed Esters and Fatty Acids (HEFA), Fischer–Tropsch Synthetic Paraffinic Kerosene (FT-SPK), Alcohol-to-Jet (ATJ), Hydro-processed Fermented Sugars to Synthetic Iso-Paraffins (HFS-SIP), Synthetic e-Kerosene, Power-to-Liquid/e-Fuels) AND Regional and Leading National Market Analysis PLUS Analysis of Leading Companies.

The global sustainable aviation fuels & propulsion systems market is estimated at US$8.25 billion in 2026 and is projected to grow at a CAGR of 22.4% during the forecast period 2026-2036.

Impact of US Trade Tariffs on the Global Sustainable Aviation Fuels & Propulsion Systems Market  

The introduction of U.S. tariffs on clean energy technologies, aviation components, and fuel-processing equipment has added a new layer of complexity to the global SAF and propulsion systems market. These tariffs influence the cost of imported catalysts, electrolysers, turbines, feedstock-processing machinery, and battery-electric/hydrogen propulsion components sourced from Europe and Asia. As a result, capital expenditure for new SAF plants and propulsion R&D projects may rise, particularly for Power-to-Liquid (PtL), Fischer–Tropsch, and hybrid-electric programs that rely heavily on global supply chains. At the same time, tariffs could accelerate domestic manufacturing in the United States, potentially creating a competitive shift in global production capacity. The overall impact varies significantly depending on the macroeconomic recovery pattern, V-shaped, U-shaped, or L-shaped, over the forecast period.

Feedstock Evolution and Technology Diversification: From Waste Oils to Alcohol-to-Jet and Power-to-Liquid Pathways

The SAF market is moving beyond HEFA (hydrotreated esters and fatty acids) toward multiple technological pathways—AtJ (alcohol-to-jet), FT-PtL (Fischer-Tropsch power-to-liquid), and municipal waste-to-SAF—because feedstock availability and sustainability constraints vary regionally and because policy increasingly rewards low-carbon-intensity (CI) pathways; this diversification reduces single-feedstock bottlenecks and opens geographically distributed production, from waste-oil plants near urban centres to PtL hubs co-located with renewable electricity. Companies such as LanzaJet have operationalised AtJ at commercial scale to demonstrate the viability of non-HEFA routes, which materially changes risk profiles for investors and airlines that need volume beyond the limited pool of waste oils.

How will this Report Benefit you?

Visiongain’s 451-page report provides 125 tables and 203 charts/graphs. Our new study is suitable for anyone requiring commercial, in-depth analyses for the sustainable aviation fuels & propulsion systems market, along with detailed segment analysis in the market. Our new study will help you evaluate the overall global and regional market for sustainable aviation fuels & propulsion systems. Get financial analysis of the overall market and different segments including propulsion system, end-user, feedstock, aircraft type, and fuel type, and capture higher market share. We believe that there are strong opportunities in this fast-growing sustainable aviation fuels & propulsion systems market. See how to use the existing and upcoming opportunities in this market to gain revenue benefits in the near future. Moreover, the report will help you to improve your strategic decision-making, allowing you to frame growth strategies, reinforce the analysis of other market players, and maximise the productivity of the company.

What are the Current Market Drivers?

Persistent Supply–Price Tensions: Production Shortfalls and the Inflationary Premium on SAF

Despite strong demand signals, near-term SAF supply remains tightly constrained and priced at a significant premium to conventional jet kerosene—an economic dynamic that both incentivizes investment and creates market friction. Airlines, IATA and other stakeholders have repeatedly warned that SAF supply growth is likely to lag mandated and aspirational targets in the immediate years, producing price volatility and requiring either government subsidy, consumer surcharges, or long-term contractual mechanisms (blends, credits, biofuel mandates) to bridge the affordability gap. The practical consequence is that projects which can materially lower production cost (scale, feedstock logistics, co-processing) capture outsized commercial advantage in the 2026–2036 window.

Integrated Industrial Response: Strategic Partnerships, Refinery Conversions and Anchor Offtake Deals De-risking Scale-up

To convert demand into physical supply, the industry is forming vertically integrated responses: refiners converting existing hydrocarbon units, specialized SAF producers building greenfield capacity, and airlines or corporates taking equity/stake positions or signing anchor offtake agreements to de-risk financing. Recent large-scale industrial moves—partners extending long-term supply frameworks and refineries being repurposed for SAF feedstocks—have established a template for converting project economics into bankable propositions. This integration is central for scaling beyond niche volumes because it addresses supply chain, certification, and feedstock aggregation simultaneously.

Where are the Market Opportunities?

Strategic Refinery Conversions and Co-processing: Rapid Route to Scaled SAF Production

Converting existing hydrocarbon refineries or integrating co-processing units presents one of the fastest pathways to scale SAF output at lower incremental capital cost than greenfield PtL plants; companies that can retrofit hydrogenation units for HEFA or implement co-processing workflows can rapidly increase capacity at comparatively lower risk. This route also enables incumbent oil & gas players to redeploy brownfield assets into SAF supply chains, creating immediate industrial scale and logistics advantages—an opportunity for partners who can negotiate feedstock access and offtake with airlines and logistics firms.

Feedstock Aggregation Platforms and Regional Circular-Economy Hubs: Locking in Low-CI Feedstocks

Creating feedstock aggregation hubs—aggregating used cooking oil, municipal solid waste, and agricultural residues—and pairing them with regional SAF plants reduces logistics cost and CI variance while creating local socioeconomic benefits. Firms that develop robust aggregation, certification, and traceability platforms will be able to secure low-CI inputs at scale, enabling more predictable plant economics and satisfying regulatory sustainability thresholds. This is particularly attractive in regions with high urban waste streams or agricultural co-products.

Competitive Landscape

The major players operating in the sustainable aviation fuels & propulsion systems market are Aemetis, Inc., Alder Energy, LLC, BP Plc, Fulcrum BioEnergy, GE Aerospace Services, Gevo, Inc., Honeywell International Inc., LanzaJet, Inc., Northwest Advanced Bio-Fuels, LLC, Pratt & Whitney, Rolls-Royce Holdings Plc, Safran S.A, Total Energies SE, World Energy, LLC, and ZeroAvia. These major players operating in this market have adopted various strategies comprising M&A, collaborations, investment in R&D, regional business expansion, partnerships, and new product launch.

Recent Developments

02-Dec-25, TotalEnergies, TES, Osaka Gas, Toho Gas, and ITOCHU signed a Joint Development & Operating Agreement for the Live Oak e-NG project in Nebraska. The project will include ~250 MW electrolysis capacity and 75 ktpa methanation, targeting operations by 2030. Japanese partners will take 33.3% equity and become primary off takers as Japan aims for 1% carbon-neutral gas injection by 2030.

02-Dec-25, Aemetis received Authority to Construct air permits for the Mechanical Vapour Recompression (MVR) project at its 65-million-gallon Keyes ethanol plant. The upgrade is expected to increase annual cash flow by $32 million starting mid-2026 through lower energy costs, LCFS credits, and 45Z tax incentives.

17-Nov-25, ZeroAvia received Design Organisation Approval (DOA) from the UK CAA, becoming the world’s first hydrogen-electric propulsion developer to achieve this recognition. The approval confirms the company’s technical competence and capability to design systems that meet aviation safety standards. It moves ZeroAvia closer to receiving a full Type Certificate for its hydrogen-electric engine.

17-Nov-25, Alder, Boeing, and Bioénergie AE Côte-Nord launched Project Avance to produce SAF from sawmill residues in Québec. Boeing is investing CAD $10 million toward the project, which aims to generate up to 10 million gallons of SAF annually. The initiative uses Alder Renewable Crude (ARC) for hydrotreating into SAF, supporting Canada’s clean energy and aviation decarbonization goals.

Notes for Editors

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